Kenya

Results of Kenya’s December 27 elections, declaring incumbent President Mwai Kibaki winner over opposition candidate Ralia Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), led to widespread violence amid credible reports of election fraud. According to UN officials, over 300 are dead with at least 180,000 displaced.

“[Odinga] claimed that the electoral commission was “being forced to declare wrong results” and called on its leaders to resign rather than plunge the country into chaos. The consequence of failing to recognise a ‘fair result’, he threatened, could be civil war,” according to the economist.

EU election observers similarly expressed concerns about the vote counting process in what polls suggested would be a close race. Suspicions are based on the withholding of votes from the Kikuyu highlands (constituencies loyal to the President) until the end of the vote-counting process and Odinga’s solid lead suddenly deteriorated. Numerous officers returning with results from these areas went missing. While expected to do well, Kibaki took 98% of these votes.

The economist, “there is a real chance of bloodletting between the Kikuyu, an ethnic group that has dominated politics and business in the decades since independence, and the Luo, led by Mr Odinga, who have been politically and economically marginalised. The fear now is that violence could erupt on a large scale in Luo strongholds in Nairobi and across western Kenya.”

On the ground shoot to kill orders have been given by police commissioners largely in opposition strongholds. Kibaki and Odinga have both called for an end to violence while accusing each other’s supporters of ethnic cleansing. Odinga reportedly rejected a request to meet with Kibaki on January 1st. An AU delegation has been sent to mediate the dispute.