The McCain/Paul Dynamic

Two new Rasmussen polls released today show significant gains for John McCain in New Hampshire (9-point gain to 27% within 4 points of Romney) and Iowa (8-point gain to 14% safely in 3rd place). What gives credibility to these numbers is the fact that since RCP began recording the Rasmussen numbers in October, McCain has been consistent at around 6% - consistency has also characterized Rasmussen numbers on the rest of the GOP field as well. This suggests the significance of recent endorsements from the Des Moines Register, Boston Globe (New England’s largest newspaper widely distributed in NH), Joe Lieberman and Henry Kissinger.

However, the GOP ABC/Washington Post released this afternoon shows no such gains for McCain. Significantly, the poll shows that 30% of likely GOP caucus-goers site immigration as the most important issue, up 6 points from a month ago. Further, Iraq is now the top issue for fewer voters - only 19%, down 5 points. Still, a third place finish could be all that McCain needs going into New Hampshire.

While, Giuliani and Thompson do not pose huge threat in this regard, Ron Paul just might. According to RCP averages, both of the former show declining numbers, while Paul shows a slow but steady incline over the past couple months. If he can capitalize on some of his unprecedented fundraising with a solid GOTV operation, he’s got a great shot at finishing third.

Thus, an interesting dynamic is in the works between McCain and Paul. They are the best bet for a third place finish in Iowa; they both have serious obstacles to overcome with Iowa voters - John McCain is to immigration as Ron Paul is to Iraq -- and they are both strongest in New Hampshire. The bottom line is that they both need a 3rd place finish in order to stay competitive in New Hampshire.