Bush/Olmert on illegal settlements in the W. Bank

Steven Erlanger's piece in the NYTimes today highlights the difficult reality of dealing with illegal settlements in the West Bank. Click here for the link

There is a certain contradiction in this between what we're actually seeing and what we ourselves promised. -Israeli PM Olmert.

Kenya

Results of Kenya’s December 27 elections, declaring incumbent President Mwai Kibaki winner over opposition candidate Ralia Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), led to widespread violence amid credible reports of election fraud. According to UN officials, over 300 are dead with at least 180,000 displaced.

“[Odinga] claimed that the electoral commission was “being forced to declare wrong results” and called on its leaders to resign rather than plunge the country into chaos. The consequence of failing to recognise a ‘fair result’, he threatened, could be civil war,” according to the economist.

EU election observers similarly expressed concerns about the vote counting process in what polls suggested would be a close race. Suspicions are based on the withholding of votes from the Kikuyu highlands (constituencies loyal to the President) until the end of the vote-counting process and Odinga’s solid lead suddenly deteriorated. Numerous officers returning with results from these areas went missing. While expected to do well, Kibaki took 98% of these votes.

The economist, “there is a real chance of bloodletting between the Kikuyu, an ethnic group that has dominated politics and business in the decades since independence, and the Luo, led by Mr Odinga, who have been politically and economically marginalised. The fear now is that violence could erupt on a large scale in Luo strongholds in Nairobi and across western Kenya.”

On the ground shoot to kill orders have been given by police commissioners largely in opposition strongholds. Kibaki and Odinga have both called for an end to violence while accusing each other’s supporters of ethnic cleansing. Odinga reportedly rejected a request to meet with Kibaki on January 1st. An AU delegation has been sent to mediate the dispute.

Child Soldiers

HRW campaign video on child soldiers... Check it out

IA Madness

I wonder what went through Pres. Musharraf's head after Bhutto's assassination when he was told that a former NC Senator was calling from Iowa?

McCain the Contender

McCain is looking alive and hot on the campaign trail. McCain Begins NH Blitz. After watching Huckabee and Romney battle these past weeks, McCain's authenticity appears particularly glaring... and he is a political veteran. The depth of the McCain campaign is different... Not by a long shot have I ever been one of the 2008 McCain faithful - but I know a couple of them. They are smart.

8 Counties for Edwards in Iowa...

Many who have been following this race since last summer have gotta feeling about Edwards' dark horse status and his ability to close in Iowa. For those who have not looked closely at how he was doing 4 years ago in the same state...

Click here for CNN Data

2004 Iowa Caucus: Out of 100 counties... Edwards won 37, tied 19 and was competitive in most.... except for 8 counties where he got womped: Blackhawk, Clinton, Dubuque, Johnson, Linn, Pottawattamie, Scott and Woodbury. These will be critical on Thursday.

Iowa 101

The Iowa caucuses do not result directly in national delegates for candidates the way that the primaries do. Instead, caucus-goers elect delegates to county conventions, who elect delegates to district and state conventions where the national convention delegates are selected. The following applies to Dems only.

Jan 3: Iowa caucus-goers gather at local precincts and do the caucus thing, after which the first ballot is cast (a blank sheet of paper). Inviable candidates (those receiving less than 15% of the vote) are weeded out by a second ballot wherein supporters of inviable candidates are required to make a second choice. Precinct delegates are then chosen to the county conventions, allocated in proportion to the percentage of support received by each candidate after the last ballot.

March 26: County conventions convene and choose their delegates to both their respective Congressional District Conventions AND the Iowa State Democratic Convention. Each presidential contender receives a number of the county's delegates to the District/State Convention in proportion to the number of County Convention delegates supporting their candidate.

April 26: Congressional District Conventions convene to choose delegates to the Democratic National Convention. 29 district delegates are allocated in proportion to the number of District Convention delegates supporting a viable candidate. Congressional districts 1-4 in Iowa are given 6 delegates and IA-5 is given 5. Thus, the district convention is the first time that DNC delegates are officially allocated to candidates.

June 14: The IA State Democratic Convention chooses 16 of Iowa's pledged DNC delegates based on statewide support: 10 At-large National Convention delegates and 6 pledged PLEOs. The remaining 12 delegates - 11 PLEOs plus 1 additional delegate - are officially unpledged.

29 district delegates + 16 pledged state delegates + 12 unpledged state delegates = 57

Aug 25-28: DNC Denver!