Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Sunday, December 30, 2007
IA Madness
I wonder what went through Pres. Musharraf's head after Bhutto's assassination when he was told that a former NC Senator was calling from Iowa?
McCain the Contender
McCain is looking alive and hot on the campaign trail. McCain Begins NH Blitz. After watching Huckabee and Romney battle these past weeks, McCain's authenticity appears particularly glaring... and he is a political veteran. The depth of the McCain campaign is different... Not by a long shot have I ever been one of the 2008 McCain faithful - but I know a couple of them. They are smart.
Saturday, December 29, 2007
8 Counties for Edwards in Iowa...
Many who have been following this race since last summer have gotta feeling about Edwards' dark horse status and his ability to close in Iowa. For those who have not looked closely at how he was doing 4 years ago in the same state...
Click here for CNN Data
2004 Iowa Caucus: Out of 100 counties... Edwards won 37, tied 19 and was competitive in most.... except for 8 counties where he got womped: Blackhawk, Clinton, Dubuque, Johnson, Linn, Pottawattamie, Scott and Woodbury. These will be critical on Thursday.
Click here for CNN Data
2004 Iowa Caucus: Out of 100 counties... Edwards won 37, tied 19 and was competitive in most.... except for 8 counties where he got womped: Blackhawk, Clinton, Dubuque, Johnson, Linn, Pottawattamie, Scott and Woodbury. These will be critical on Thursday.
Iowa 101
The Iowa caucuses do not result directly in national delegates for candidates the way that the primaries do. Instead, caucus-goers elect delegates to county conventions, who elect delegates to district and state conventions where the national convention delegates are selected. The following applies to Dems only.Jan 3: Iowa caucus-goers gather at local precincts and do the caucus thing, after which the first ballot is cast (a blank sheet of paper). Inviable candidates (those receiving less than 15% of the vote) are weeded out by a second ballot wherein supporters of inviable candidates are required to make a second choice. Precinct delegates are then chosen to the county conventions, allocated in proportion to the percentage of support received by each candidate after the last ballot.
March 26: County conventions convene and choose their delegates to both their respective Congressional District Conventions AND the Iowa State Democratic Convention. Each presidential contender receives a number of the county's delegates to the District/State Convention in proportion to the number of County Convention delegates supporting their candidate.
April 26: Congressional District Conventions convene to choose delegates to the Democratic National Convention. 29 district delegates are allocated in proportion to the number of District Convention delegates supporting a viable candidate. Congressional districts 1-4 in Iowa are given 6 delegates and IA-5 is given 5. Thus, the district convention is the first time that DNC delegates are officially allocated to candidates.
June 14: The IA State Democratic Convention chooses 16 of Iowa's pledged DNC delegates based on statewide support: 10 At-large National Convention delegates and 6 pledged PLEOs. The remaining 12 delegates - 11 PLEOs plus 1 additional delegate - are officially unpledged.
29 district delegates + 16 pledged state delegates + 12 unpledged state delegates = 57
Aug 25-28: DNC Denver!
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
The McCain/Paul Dynamic
Two new Rasmussen polls released today show significant gains for John McCain in New Hampshire (9-point gain to 27% within 4 points of Romney) and Iowa (8-point gain to 14% safely in 3rd place). What gives credibility to these numbers is the fact that since RCP began recording the Rasmussen numbers in October, McCain has been consistent at around 6% - consistency has also characterized Rasmussen numbers on the rest of the GOP field as well. This suggests the significance of recent endorsements from the Des Moines Register, Boston Globe (New England’s largest newspaper widely distributed in NH), Joe Lieberman and Henry Kissinger.
However, the GOP ABC/Washington Post released this afternoon shows no such gains for McCain. Significantly, the poll shows that 30% of likely GOP caucus-goers site immigration as the most important issue, up 6 points from a month ago. Further, Iraq is now the top issue for fewer voters - only 19%, down 5 points. Still, a third place finish could be all that McCain needs going into New Hampshire.
While, Giuliani and Thompson do not pose huge threat in this regard, Ron Paul just might. According to RCP averages, both of the former show declining numbers, while Paul shows a slow but steady incline over the past couple months. If he can capitalize on some of his unprecedented fundraising with a solid GOTV operation, he’s got a great shot at finishing third.
Thus, an interesting dynamic is in the works between McCain and Paul. They are the best bet for a third place finish in Iowa; they both have serious obstacles to overcome with Iowa voters - John McCain is to immigration as Ron Paul is to Iraq -- and they are both strongest in New Hampshire. The bottom line is that they both need a 3rd place finish in order to stay competitive in New Hampshire.
However, the GOP ABC/Washington Post released this afternoon shows no such gains for McCain. Significantly, the poll shows that 30% of likely GOP caucus-goers site immigration as the most important issue, up 6 points from a month ago. Further, Iraq is now the top issue for fewer voters - only 19%, down 5 points. Still, a third place finish could be all that McCain needs going into New Hampshire.
While, Giuliani and Thompson do not pose huge threat in this regard, Ron Paul just might. According to RCP averages, both of the former show declining numbers, while Paul shows a slow but steady incline over the past couple months. If he can capitalize on some of his unprecedented fundraising with a solid GOTV operation, he’s got a great shot at finishing third.
Thus, an interesting dynamic is in the works between McCain and Paul. They are the best bet for a third place finish in Iowa; they both have serious obstacles to overcome with Iowa voters - John McCain is to immigration as Ron Paul is to Iraq -- and they are both strongest in New Hampshire. The bottom line is that they both need a 3rd place finish in order to stay competitive in New Hampshire.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
The Case for Gravel in 3 Sentences or Less...
Watching Mike Gravel in the early debates this year always seemed to make at least two things clear: 1) the war on drugs is an issue severely in need of open and informed public debate in this country and 2) Dennis Kucinich appeared a more articulate, professional and less belligerent representative of the Democratic left. And so I was surprised when a well-informed colleague mentioned his political affinity for Mike Gravel over the rest of the field. The case that was subsequently laid out for me was as simple and straightforward as it was significant - thus, as it was presented to me I present to you the case for Mike Gravel in 3 sentences or less.
1) Senator Gravel successfully halted the Pentagon's Cannikin Nuclear Tests in the 50s and 60s - 5 scheduled tests of a nuclear weapon determined to be "obsolete" to be detonated under the seabed of the North Pacific at Amchitka Island, Alaska; Gravel took his fight beyond the Senate, organizing a global coalition that succeeded in preventing three of the planned environmentally devastating detonations.
2) In 1971, Gravel staged a successful 5-month filibuster against legislation to renew the peace-time military draft that had been policy since 1947; President Nixon and Senate Republicans were forced to save face by letting the policy expire in 1973. Many young men and women with no desire to be fighting a war in Iraq or Afghanistan undoubtedly owe Senator Gravel a debt of gratitude - myself among them.
3) On June 29, 1971 Mike Gravel entered 4,100 pages of the Pentagon Papers - which revealed the previously classified government's own account of the policymaking process behind the US decision to go to war in Vietnam - into the Congressional record of his Subcommittee on Public Buildings and Grounds; the significance of the entry was that, Article I, Section 6 of the US Constitution states that "for any Speech or Debate in either House, they shall not be questioned in any other Place;" this meant that the Papers were now allowed to be read publicly without threat of legal action.
It occurs to me that I am most compelled to share this information because as I watched Gravel in the debates, it didn't occur to me that this former Senator from Alaska was a serious candidate who had made a serious decision to run for President of the United States. Rather, I bought into poor media coverage of a "raw candidate." The irony here for me is that Gravel entered the Pentagon Papers into the Congressional Record precisely because the media was an inadequate conduit for the publication of some of the most significant government documents ever made public. As I have been utterly unaware throughout the 2008 primary campaigns of Senator Gravel's role in the publication of the Pentagon Papers, his filibuster to end the draft and his actions to halt "obsolete" nuclear weapons tests - yet well-informed of the price of his opponent's haircut, it is suddenly not so difficult to see why the CIA illegally destroys interrogation tapes...
The following excerpt is from the introduction of what is known as The Gravel Edition of the Pentagon Papers. Compiled by the Senator, edited and annotated by the Noam Chomsky Howard Zinn, it is the most comprehensive edition of the Papers published to date.
"However, the public has not had access to this study [the Pentagon Papers]. Newspapers in possession of the documents have published excerpts from them and have prepared their own summary of the study’s findings. In doing this, they have performed a valuable public service. But every American is entitled to examine the study in full and to digest for himself the lessons it contains. The people must know the full story of their government’s actions over the past twenty years, to ensure that never again will this great nation be led into waging a war through ignorance and deception" (italics added).
1) Senator Gravel successfully halted the Pentagon's Cannikin Nuclear Tests in the 50s and 60s - 5 scheduled tests of a nuclear weapon determined to be "obsolete" to be detonated under the seabed of the North Pacific at Amchitka Island, Alaska; Gravel took his fight beyond the Senate, organizing a global coalition that succeeded in preventing three of the planned environmentally devastating detonations.
2) In 1971, Gravel staged a successful 5-month filibuster against legislation to renew the peace-time military draft that had been policy since 1947; President Nixon and Senate Republicans were forced to save face by letting the policy expire in 1973. Many young men and women with no desire to be fighting a war in Iraq or Afghanistan undoubtedly owe Senator Gravel a debt of gratitude - myself among them.
3) On June 29, 1971 Mike Gravel entered 4,100 pages of the Pentagon Papers - which revealed the previously classified government's own account of the policymaking process behind the US decision to go to war in Vietnam - into the Congressional record of his Subcommittee on Public Buildings and Grounds; the significance of the entry was that, Article I, Section 6 of the US Constitution states that "for any Speech or Debate in either House, they shall not be questioned in any other Place;" this meant that the Papers were now allowed to be read publicly without threat of legal action.
It occurs to me that I am most compelled to share this information because as I watched Gravel in the debates, it didn't occur to me that this former Senator from Alaska was a serious candidate who had made a serious decision to run for President of the United States. Rather, I bought into poor media coverage of a "raw candidate." The irony here for me is that Gravel entered the Pentagon Papers into the Congressional Record precisely because the media was an inadequate conduit for the publication of some of the most significant government documents ever made public. As I have been utterly unaware throughout the 2008 primary campaigns of Senator Gravel's role in the publication of the Pentagon Papers, his filibuster to end the draft and his actions to halt "obsolete" nuclear weapons tests - yet well-informed of the price of his opponent's haircut, it is suddenly not so difficult to see why the CIA illegally destroys interrogation tapes...
The following excerpt is from the introduction of what is known as The Gravel Edition of the Pentagon Papers. Compiled by the Senator, edited and annotated by the Noam Chomsky Howard Zinn, it is the most comprehensive edition of the Papers published to date.
"However, the public has not had access to this study [the Pentagon Papers]. Newspapers in possession of the documents have published excerpts from them and have prepared their own summary of the study’s findings. In doing this, they have performed a valuable public service. But every American is entitled to examine the study in full and to digest for himself the lessons it contains. The people must know the full story of their government’s actions over the past twenty years, to ensure that never again will this great nation be led into waging a war through ignorance and deception" (italics added).
"It is for this reason that I determined, when I came into possession of this material, that it must be made available to the American public. For the tragic history it reveals must now be known. The terrible truth is that the Papers do not support our public statements. The Papers do not support our good intentions. The Papers prove that, from the beginning, the war has been an American war, serving only to perpetuate American military power in Asia. Peace has never been on the American agenda for Southeast Asia. Neither we nor the South Vietnamese have been masters of our Southeast Asian policy; we have been its victims, as the leaders of America sought to preserve their reputation for toughness and determination." - Senator Mike Gravel
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